Mat Latos against The World (or several young padres)

February 28, 2010

One of the biggest questions for the Padres, as for many other teams entering spring training, is who will fill the ever-in-flux fifth starter position. For a large portion of Padre fans and anaylsts, it seems that Mat Latos is a forgone conclusion as the fifth starter. For me however, it is a much more complex issue. While Latos had a couple excellent showings during his brief appearance in the majors last season, (4-5, 4.62 ERA, 10 GS, 50.2 IP, 39 K, 1.30 WHIP) he also appeared vulnerable at times. Looking at his minor league numbers (12-8, 2.49 ERA, 35 GS, 184.2 IP, 216 K, 1.06 WHIP)  it is easy to assume that he can improve greatly upon his Major League numbers when given the chance. Those minor league numbers (among other things) also give one reason to think that Latos may not be the best option to open the season in the fifth starters spot as opposed to AAA.

In three professional seasons Latos has thrown less than 200 innings. (2008 was mostly lost to injury) Last year, Latos accumulated 123 innings across three levels.(lo-A,AA,NL) Obviously that more than doubled the number of innings he had ever pitched in a year.  The increased workload for Latos could put his arm at risk, as documented in an article by Tom Verducci. (more on this later) Aware of these facts, Jed Hoyer said in a recent radio interview that Latos would be limited to about 150 innings this year. In that same interview Hoyer also said that Mat might “have the highest ceiling in the organization”. It is clear that Mat holds tremendous value for the Padres moving forward. Hoyer will be tasked with maximizing that value over Latos’ entire career with the team, not just this season. This begs the question of what the best way to maximize that value in the coming years.

As covered in the first paragraph Latos has less than 200 innings (one good season for an MLB starter) in the minor leagues, and none at AAA. As promising a young talent as Latos is, and as dominant as he has been in the minor leagues so far, he still has some developing to do. His change-up is still a work in progress and he has yet to display control as precise as that which he showed in the minors. (4.1 majors/2.3 minors BB/9 innings) His fastball and slider can be devastating to opposing batters and there is little doubt that Latos can help the Padres win some games with them. Two major concerns are raised by his lack of experience though. Principal among those concerns is the health of Latos’ arm.

Tom Verducci at Sports Illustrated wrote an article recently detailing the top ten candidates for what he call’s “The Verducci Effect“.  Essentially “The Verducci Effect” is a statistical metric that tracks large increases in pitching workloads on a year to year basis for young pitchers, and calculates the likelihood that said young pitchers will suffer injury during the coming season as a result. Obviously this is not a fool-proof statistic. I think we can all agree that trying to predict where and when pitchers will get hurt can be very inaccurate (and depressing) and cause as many problems as it abates. (see: the Joba rules) It is however, an ominous sign for Latos. Given the fact that he will be on a pitch count this year to further develop and strengthen his arm while reducing risk of injury, it seems that he may be better suited to begin the year in Portland.

The second factor that indicates Latos would serve the Padres better by starting the year as a Beaver, is his arbitration clock. Almost every player who gets drafted enters into a six year major league agreement with the club they are drafted by. For the first four years of Major League service time (except in Super Two cases) the players salary is determined by his ball club. (that salary is usually very near the league minimum 400k) In the final two years (or three years in super two cases) of said agreement, the player becomes eligible for salary arbitration. During salary arbitration, if the player and his club cannot reach an agreement on a salary similar to players with comparable statistics and service time, the two sides submit salary figures and an arbitrator determines whose salary is more appropriate. (no room for compromise once arbitration has begun) This is where young players will typically land a long term extension (see: Justin Upton’s or Tim Lincecum’s recent extensions) or go year to year in hopes of earning large one-season contracts. (see: Ryan Howard’s record setting 10 million dollar arbitration win) Having covered all of that, I think it becomes clear that the Padres would be much better served by letting Latos begin the year at Portland. There he can build his arm strength, refine his mechanics, improve his pitches and won’t have to worry about costing the ML club a win when he is pulled from a game early to protect his pitch count. In short I would much prefer to have Latos enter the rotation when he is a bit closer to being a finished product, and is unrestricted by pitch counts, before beginning the march toward arbitration.

To conclude part one of this week’s feature lets review:  Mat Latos is a brilliant young pitching prospect. Anyone who has watched him pitch can agree with that. In a financial and organizational vacuum he is an easy choice as a fifth starter. When one examines the details however it becomes clear that he may, in fact, not be the best fit as the Padres fifth starter. Given the fact that the Padres are unlikely to compete for a playoff spot this year, I believe it would be prudent to allow Latos to spend more time developing and improving in the Minors coupled with a September call-up. (which will not affect his arbitration clock) As opposed to starting him out in San Diego and shutting him down for a third of the season when he reaches his innings limit. Thus he will provide maximum value during the subsequent three years when the Padres are likely to be more competitive. 

Coming tomorrow: THE WORLD (or the other fifth starter candidates, specifically Wade Le Blanc, Sean Gallagher, Aaron Poreda and Tim Stauffer)

Thanks to: Thebaseballcube.com, SI.com, Tom Verducci, 1090am XX Sports Radio,  

 

Written by mlblogsfislinl Posted in Dailies Tagged with Aaron Poreda, Arbitration, Mat Latos, Padres, Pitching, Sean Gallagher, Spring Training, Tim Stauffer, Wade Le Blanc